OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. What is your background If we dont know that why should anything you say be taken seriously. The vast bulk of German military losses were sustained on the Eastern Front. 23 hours of listening for only the bravest. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. It really was a disappointing statement yesterday by NATO leaders on Ukraine's membership. Toni Mount. The most interesting interview Ive seen this. estimate, they Russians will struggle at 90 miles from working railheads. The Joint Chiefs of Staff, the atom bomb, the American military mind and the end of the Second World War O&39;Brien, P. errorContainer background-color FFF; color 0F1419; max-width. Phillips P. Quote Tweet. Dec 27, 2023 Phillips P. Sign up. Military Intelligence Russia wants to split Ukraine into two. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Jul 13. Writing about grand strategy, war, history, Romanesque and Baroque buildings I love, Sicily, and pretty much. Was just talking with a NATO officer about the Russian Army and asked him how long it would take the Finnish Army to seize St Petersburg. Phillips P. piece in early April 2022 on the Ukrainian Way of War. Phillips P. Ukraine Is Waging a New Kind of War. Pretty strong evidence from the NBCNews exit poll that the Abortion question really did change the outcome of this midterm election. Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. Slow-walking aid because of fears of escalation makes war longer and worse. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. One story that seemed to take off, was that the Russians had massed a huge force not only of newly trained soldiers, but also tanks and aircraft and that they were poised to mount a hammer blow attack on Russian forces. In this conversation. Sign up. Chairman of the Defence Select Committee said both Labour and the Conservatives need to be brave enough to say what many MPs privately think. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. rukraine rukraine 4 mo. No more plausible deniability it seems. David Berger said. It would be impossible to send Zelensky back to Ukraine disappointed or let down. To clarify on the averages, this is a daily average over the three days leading to that date, not the average over three days. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien The whole Ukrainian plan now seems to be on spreading out and wasting Russian defensive forces--and the Ukrainians sound like the plan is working. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. see guardian. Twitter; Be the first to know Well send you the latest. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. 807 PM Jul 13, 2023. Chairman of the Defence Select Committee said both Labour and the Conservatives need to be brave enough to say what many MPs privately think. An early weekend update, building on this tweet thread of yesterday, this morning's sitrep from GeneralStaffUA does have more elements of confidence on the situation stabilizing in the Donbas, that seem noteworthy (at least to me). If you are. Andrews in Scotland, said, What they were actually trying to do was logistically bonkers. 807 PM &183; Jul 13, 2023. And the Russians seem to have had issues with this too. Jun 24, 2023 Phillips P. Now we really have reached the witch-burning stage of Brexit, which makes no pretext of needing evidence to make its cases or explain why the policy is failing. Jul 10, 2023 Erdogan is linking Sweden-in-NATO bid to Turkey-in-EU bid. Editor in. By the way, I'm in Palermo and enormously impressed. First come and open the way for Turkey in the EU -- after that well open the way for Sweden, just like we did for Finland, Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul before leaving for Vilnius. Hello Everyone, well the big story of the week was the NATO summit at Vilnius, and in particular what that said about how the war might develop and then what will happen with Ukraine and NATO after the war. Would be surprising if Ukraine had the heavy forces available there to attack the Russian army to the northeast of Kyiv. Mar 5, 2022 Phillips P. See new Tweets. Can you explain this political map I dont see any obvious split between left and right (urban-rural, north-south, etc). This war is using up material in massive quantitiesin ways that before February 24 would have been unimaginable. Nice way to end the day. What one picture might be able to tell us about the upcoming Russian attempt to 'fix' the Donbas. Ukraine has actually given all of Europe and NATO a great opportunity in exposing Russian weakness. I dont speak Ukrainian or Russian so dont think I could do it. Phillips P. Editor's note Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine. Andrews in Fife, Scotland. The Russian fight for Bakhmut alone (which they still havent taken) considering its been going on for 9-10 months, is probably equal to US casualties in the whole Korean War. Military Intelligence Russia wants to split Ukraine into two. The latest tweets from PhillipsPOBrien. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien As someone who has been very critical of Russian military performance and complimentary of the way the Ukrainians have defended themselves, I do think we need to be careful arguing that Ukraine can somehow easily take on a long war or make extreme demands in a peace treaty. Thanks TracyBorman. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. 312 PM &183; Apr 28, 2022 &183; Twitter for iPhone. 971-991 Article peer-review. OBrien added, Jack Detsch Verified account JackDetsch Russia would beat Ukraine in a virtual wargame in 72 to 96 hours, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Skip to content. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. Log in. assesses that Russia now has 76 battalion tactical groups inside Ukraine, an increase of 11 over last week senior U. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Speaking of Bakhmut, the head of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, Kirill Budanov, just gave one of his most detailed interviews to Ukrainian media. Jun 24, 2023 Phillips P. A truly weird moment when many started imagining a great Russian armored breakout and encirclement. Phillips P. Without concrete steps to build a new force, Russia cant fight a long war, and the clock starts ticking on. Phillips P. OBrien retweeted. I am a real person. Phillips Payson OBrien. Mar 5, 2022 Phillips P. Phillips P. Connect with Phillips Payson OBrien. Jul 3, 2023 Phillips P. Apr 28, 2022 Gosh, would never have imagined this. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Im more of a glass half full person on this--the political and military commitments to Ukraine seem stronger. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Has the risky drive from Sumy by the Russians petered out--or was it never as close to start This will have serious implications to any move on the Ukrainian capital. The vast bulk of German military losses were sustained on the Eastern Front. Phillips P. I answer the question--is this the week Ukraine won the war" Hi All, sending out my weekend update (its free) now as. Andrews in Fife, Scotland. Delved into 3 questions--the importance of Biden&39;s visit to Kyiv, Chinese policy, and the ongoing Russian offensive. Those who like to amplify Russian nuclear threats always (conveniently) overlook the fact hat China will lose strategically. Hi Everyone, just released my weekend update (its free). Russians destroying the nordstream pipeline was always the most likely reality. ago by Harvickfan4Life. Verified account. Quote Tweet. According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of Defense Ministrys Intelligence Directorate, Russia will try a Korean scenario by creating a separate political entity in the Russian-occupied regions. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Aqu&237; nos gustar&237;a mostrarte una descripci&243;n, pero el sitio web que est&225;s mirando no lo permite. Phillips P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien As someone who has been very critical of Russian military performance and complimentary of the way the Ukrainians have defended themselves, I do think we need to be careful arguing that Ukraine can somehow easily take on a long war or make extreme demands in a peace treaty. My guess is that reform will take longer than the next few months. Military Intelligence Russia wants to split Ukraine into two. defense official Russia is continuing to reinforce Ukraine's east and south, and has no units left in the north, near the capital of Kyiv. Yes, its logistics. Really Interesting story about a presentation by RAF Air Chief Marshal Knighton. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien As someone who has been very critical of Russian military performance and complimentary of the way the Ukrainians have defended themselves, I do think we need to be careful arguing that Ukraine can somehow easily take on a long war or make extreme demands in a peace treaty. Saw Santa Maria dell&39;Ammiraglio yesterday, with astonishing 12th century mosaics. Phillips P. Phillips P. What you can see is that there have hardly been any Russian thrusts that have exceeded the natural limit set by their truck lift. Verified account Protected Tweets ; Suggested users. Jul 17, 2023 Get asked this a lot. Hi All, MBielieskov and I just released the latest Ukraine-Russia War Talk Podcast. Here&39;s Roger II (&39;Rogerios rex&39;) being crowned by Christ. Phillips P. Quote Tweet. Editor in Chief, War in History. OBrien 100 25. RT TheStudyofWar Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks and reportedly advanced around Bakhmut on July 14. Phillips P. 312 PM &183; Apr 28, 2022 &183; Twitter for iPhone. Brave and also a real slap in the face to Russian power. Even though people thought last year at this time that the US population would get bored, and move on, actually support for a Ukraine is rising. Would defintely be willing to help a Ukrainianbut wont be the lead author. Apr 20, 2022 Phillips P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien It was the smart switch with the fight moving to the Donbas, where Russia&39;s supply issues will improve, allowing them to build up dumps more efficiently (which is some evidence that they are doing) This is a translation of a recent Ukrainian communique. Phillips P. This war is using up material in massive quantitiesin ways that before February 24 would have been unimaginable. defense official Russia is continuing to reinforce Ukraine&39;s east and south, and has no units left in the north, near the capital of Kyiv. Phillips P. Of course the tragedy of this is that Barbie has ended up one of the last great realists--and we will hear how Taiwan must be. Phillips P. Hi everyone, just sent out my weekend update (its free). needs to be emphasized over and over--the battle line in real terms has barely shifted in meaningful terms since the Ukrainian victory at Kherson. My latest piece for TheAtlantic just dropped, why a smarter, more diverse and intellectually flexible (woke) army is much better than the hyper masculine, forces that are often seen as the military paradigm. Phillips P. 707412753, 37. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, univofstandrews; Senior Adviser CSIS; Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. 971-991 Article peer-review. Mar 22. defense official Russia is continuing to reinforce Ukraine&39;s east and south, and has no units left in the north, near the capital of Kyiv. They will have to weaken the Russians first before making significant advances. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Jan 3, 2023 Bear in mind that the Soviets were already in Poland by D-Day. Andrews in Fife, Scotland. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien It was the smart switch with the fight moving to the Donbas, where Russia's supply issues will improve, allowing them to build up dumps more efficiently (which is some evidence that they are doing) This is a translation of a recent Ukrainian communique. Phillips P. Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard. OBrien on Twitter What today is proving is that the war was fundamentally misunderstood from the start because the narrative was set by Russian experts and analysts. Other sources have not estimated for a bit. Phillips P. The one new detail they let out was that they are catching numerous (more than 15) Russian soldiers in civilian clothes. We need to admit Brexit is a mistake and rejoin the single market Senior Tory says. Mar 16, 2022 U. About the. Verified account Protected Tweets ; Suggested users. Can I ask people who have questions on the thread that they want asked to put them in this tweet I will try to work through them. The Ukrainian update this morning (here is the facebook link to the Ukrainian report, but you can use a translation service to read) is the same. Verified account Protected Tweets ; Suggested users. Russia still has most of its air force, but cant. Ukraine WarBattle of the Donbas update. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien It was the smart switch with the fight moving to the Donbas, where Russia's supply issues will improve, allowing them to build up dumps more efficiently (which is some evidence that they are doing) This is a translation of a recent Ukrainian communique. Well thats a sign of how cowed the Russian Navy is--Zelensky visits Zmiinyi Island (Snake Island) is daylight. For those who dont know, Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine (pop before the war of almost 1. lucky lucky you. Jul 24, 2022 Phillips P. I wonder if it is a precaution due to explosions in Crimea or due to the damage it sustained a few days ago and repairs associated with that. Phillips&x27;s Newsletter By Phillips P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien worth noting that the ISW report saying that the Russians have lost the first stage of the war, suggests that the only way for them to recover is to regroup and resupply as outlined in this tweet thread. Weekend Update 29. 42, 7, p. People trying to explain away Kirby&39;s remarks about Russian losses and Bakhmut miss the point. This is an historic step which makes all. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. First, is the fighing, which Ukraine is undertakinmuch as it did during the Battle of Kherson. What you can see is that there have hardly been any Russian thrusts that have exceeded the natural limit set by their truck lift. Wow--and estimates I heard in Ukraine would be that about one third of all of these Russians casualties would have occurred in and around Bakhmut. assesses that Russia now has 76 battalion tactical groups inside Ukraine, an increase of 11 over last week senior U. Thanks TracyBorman. So dont get fooled by what seems confident prognostications which really dont know what they are talking about. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Thats a failure. It seems to be a real melange. Phillips P. Weekend Update37. People talking about the counteroffensive being a failure are out of their minds. see guardian. Quote Tweet. So brace yourself. Brave and also a real slap in the face to Russian power. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Maybe Im too much of an optimist, but I cant imagine that a very good arrangement is not worked out between Ukraine and NATO in the coming hours. see guardian. Washington does seem more interested in trying to script some kind of compromise ending. Andrews in Fife, Scotland. Tweets with replies by Phillips P. Phillips P. IMHO, whats happening now near Bakhmut is not The Big One We All Wait For. Phillips P. He seems the best poised--with South Carolina an early primary. Those who like to amplify Russian nuclear threats always (conveniently) overlook the fact hat China will lose strategically. Not writing a book about the Russo-Ukraine war (though will refer to it in what I am writing). One extreme example was the Japanese government in World War II, which claimed to basically wipe out the US Pacific fleet in every battle. Jul 16, 2023 Good Morning Everyone--just sent out my weekend update (its free). Phillips P. Some decent context on the state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the FT analysis by the UK Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin. Illia Ponomarenko. Phillips P. A really interesting poll about US popular support for arming Ukraine. More likely a limited operation to secure Ukrainian ground lines of communications running into the city. See new Tweets. Should he make the call to fully mobilize, there is a massive untapped reservoir of force available. Ukraine was and is actually the superior power, just was not so well armed at first. OBrien 100 25. This is Russia making one of the biggest escalations of the war, I do hope all of those who have been so quick to condemn NATO states for their growing support for Ukraine. First come and open the way for Turkey in the EU -- after that well open the way for Sweden, just like we did for Finland, Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul before leaving for Vilnius. Andrews in Fife, Scotland. cogency pronunciation, nasa engineer salary
To clarify on the averages, this is a daily average over the three days leading to that date, not the average over three days. . Phillips obrien twitter
Phillips P. Brave and also a real slap in the face to Russian power. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien U. Not writing a book about the Russo-Ukraine war (though will refer to it in what I am writing). Btw these attacks to the northeast threaten the supplies of the long Russian attack from Sumy to Kyiv. I thought this is what they were doing at the time, and. Phillips P. Phillips P. The losses of soldiers seems to be restricting Russian operations already and they are trying to plug some holes using mercenaries and forces from other regions. The losses of soldiers seems to be restricting Russian operations already and they are trying to plug some holes using mercenaries and forces from other regions. needs to be emphasized over and over--the battle line in real terms has barely shifted in meaningful terms since the Ukrainian victory at Kherson. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien This might be counter-intuitive, but the mediocre (to be kind) performance of the Russian military in Kyiv means that Europe and the USA do not need to rush out and spend billions more right away on their militaries. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Editor in Chief, War in History. The losses of soldiers seems to be restricting Russian operations already and they are trying to plug some holes using mercenaries and forces from other regions. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien worth noting that the ISW report saying that the Russians have lost the first stage of the war, suggests that the only way for them to recover is to regroup and resupply as outlined in this tweet thread. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. 2 minutes in, Mikhail Khodaryonok, the one analyst who spoke truthfully on Russian TV early in the war (and then had his knuckles rapped) explains the meaning of Kupiansk falling. Phillips P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Phillips P. The absurdity of Putin's war in a nutshell. Good Morning Everyone--just sent out my weekend update (its free). This letter could be a very important development. A thread (speculative) on what is the most importantleast discussed strategic concept of the invasion so far Ukrainian strategy. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. Subscribe to Phillips OBriens substack here. Said it before, but will say it again. Even though people thought last year at this time that the US population would get bored, and move on, actually support for a Ukraine is rising. Apr 8, 2022 Phillips OBrien is a Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Phillips P. I am a real person. I thought this is what they were doing at the time, and. This last one helped with geolocation of the first one. He said, not long, only problem theyd face is that the Poles would get there first. Phillips P. This is an historic step which makes all NATO Allies. This parade is used to highlight Russia&39;s most up to date military weaponry, its where Putin liked to show his super-duper stuff. Research output Contribution to journal Article peer-review Herbert Hoover, Anglo-American relations and republican party politics in the 1920s. But if they continue pressing, the Ukrainians could wreak havoc on Russian communications and supply. MOD maps of Ukraine war today and one week ago. OBrien, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien This fits in with an estimate of the Institute for the Study of War last night, which wondered if the Russians were even able to launch an assault on Kyiv in the coming period. Dec 2. 700 PM &183; May 11, 2023. Mar 12, 2022 Logistics Rule--look at the map. which, once again, highlights the strong Chinese opposition to Russia ever using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Been watching the events of the last 18 hours closely, and have to say this looks like a far more well-planned out coup attempt than it first appeared. COLIN ALSTONCOLINALSTON1. Researcher profile. Russias military buildup along the border with Ukraine has. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien &183; Mar 14. If, like the Russians, you waste your forces endlessly attacking Bakhmut, but take the city eventually. The latest Tweets from phillip p obrien (phillippobrien). , somebody is currently trying to explain to Tory donor, Boris Johnson loan facilitator & Boris Johnson-nominated chairman of the BBC, Richard Sharp, what integrity, honesty & solidarity are. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien That way they could gain access to working road and rail lines straight from Russia, which would allow later assaults on Kyiv and Odessa, once they had established large forward supply dumps closer to the targets. Mar 14, 2022 Phillips P. In this conversation. In this conversation. Mar 29, 2022 Phillips P. OBrien (PhillipsPOBrien) Twitter Follow Phillips P. How the War was Won Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory finally appears as an audio-book. Illia Ponomarenko. , 2020, In Journal of Strategic Studies. Hi Everyone, just released my weekend update (its free). rukraine rukraine 4 mo. If the Ukrainians arent recapturing large parcels of territory now, its because that is not there main aim. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. O'Brien, P. Ukraine WarBattle of the Donbas update. Ukraine will have to acquiesce in real (if not legal) terms to Russia keeping all parts of Ukraine it has seized. OBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, univofstandrew. However a battleship was never going to determine the course of the Battle of the Atlantic. 4 days ago Click to read Phillipss Newsletter, by Phillips P. Interesting to see the most recent washingtonpost story about Ukrainian strategy around Bakhmut. Phillips P. Your lips to God's ears. Phillips&x27;s Newsletter By Phillips P. I wonder if it is a precaution due to explosions in Crimea or due to the damage it sustained a few days ago and repairs associated with that. No one else did. An early weekend update, building on this tweet thread of yesterday, this morning's sitrep from GeneralStaffUA does have more elements of confidence on the situation stabilizing in the Donbas, that seem noteworthy (at least to me). 100 PM Feb 7, 2023. Pres Zelenskys latest speech put the Ukr offensive in proper light. Oleksii Danilov says Ukrainians believe the Russians are losing 7 soldiers for each Ukrainian lost in the Bakhmut fighting. assesses that Russia now has 76 battalion tactical groups inside Ukraine, an increase of 11 over last week senior U. Will have to revisit that in. Jul 3, 2022 It has now been 76 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Dohnbas. In this conversation. Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. Ukraine will have to acquiesce in real (if not legal) terms to Russia keeping all parts of Ukraine it has seized. The latest Tweets from phillip p obrien (phillippobrien). Yesthere are some real shortages. Phillips P. By slow-walking different military support for Ukraine, this war has become longer, bloodier and crossed certain lines (cluster munitions) that people were not imagining back on Feb 24. Phillips P. And why this is a lesson on the stupidity of war. Phillips P. Phillips P. 836 AM Apr 8, 2022. It has some of the better intelligence on the state of Russian logistics that Ive seen. 1228 AM Jan 22, 2023 270Likes86Retweets. Over 100000 RussIan casualties just in Bakhmut, thats a catastrophic level of loss, and the US has actually been cautious in such estimates. Talked about a few things--it might be a very good thing that Russia is having to send its KA-52s into action to try and stop Ukraine (yes they do damage, but they will be very vulnerable too). Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)" Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. Andrews in Fife, Scotland. Brave and also a real slap in the face to Russian power. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien This might be counter-intuitive, but the mediocre (to be kind) performance of the Russian military in Kyiv means that Europe and the USA do not need to rush out and spend billions more right away on their militaries. The vast bulk of German military losses were sustained on the Eastern Front. For a number of reasons. edwardlucas cepa. . spd bridgestone